Cbank expects liquidity surplus of banks at 0.6–1.3 tln rbl 2021

MOSCOW, Dec 10 (PRIME) -- The central bank has maintained its 2020 banking liquidity surplus forecast at 1–1.4 trillion rubles, but it may fall to 0.6–1.3 trillion rubles as of the end of 2021, the regulator said in a research note on Thursday.

“The structural liquidity surplus forecast as of the end of 2020 was maintained at 1–1.4 trillion rubles taking into account the increase of budget spending in December. … After that, liquidity surplus may contract. As of the end of 2021, surplus may stand at 0.6–1.3 trillion rubles,” the note read.

The forecast encompasses full implementation of budget spending drafted by the Finance Ministry. In case some 2020 spending is delayed to 2021, the Federal Treasury may raise the money it offers on deposits with banks.

The central bank also expects an increase in demand for cash in December to be smaller as compared with the previous years. The cash that the Russians stashed away this year may reduce their demand for additional cash during the holidays. If demand remains traditional, liquidity outflow may be higher, and surplus may undershoot the forecast. Still, it is only a temporary factor, and money will return to the banks in the first few days of January.

(73.3057 rubles – U.S. $1)

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